A landmark study conducted by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy reveals that the cost of establishing a new country could cost Albertans between $50 billion and $170 billion during the first five years following an exit from Canada.
Commissioned to provide non-partisan economic context ahead of the October 19 referendum, the final report considers two hypothetical scenarios to give Albertans a sense of the costs associated with separation:
The findings demonstrate that both pathways trigger immediate financial disruption. Under an adversarial transition, severe trade barriers and restricted export access would shrink the provincial economy by more than 16 percent over two decades and drop employment rates by nearly five percent compared to remaining in Confederation. Even with substantial tax increases, the new government would grapple with a permanent annual deficit exceeding $30 billion.
While in the case of a cooperative departure Alberta may be able to maintain access to major trade markets, expand resource development and deliver some government services more efficiently. The report cautions, however, that any potential economic recovery could take many years following the disruption of separation and would depend on very specific conditions, including sustained high oil prices, that could not be guaranteed through negotiations.
Martha Hall Findlay, director of the School of Public Policy, emphasized that researchers operated with full academic independence to supply objective data for voters evaluating this historic choice.
A review panel headed by economist Dr. Jack Mintz evaluated the findings, confirming that while long-term outcomes remain unpredictable, short-term economic losses are guaranteed for Alberta and would inflict severe collateral damage on the rest of the Canadian economy.